According to Telos Actuarial, between 2013 and 2022, the number of Medicare beneficiaries increased by over 12.5 million with an annualized growth rate of 2.4%. While the annualized growth rate over the next 10 years is expected to fall below 2.0%, the number of Medicare beneficiaries to be added by 2032 is just under 14 million, bringing the total to 78.7 million.
The growth in the total Medicare market poses the opportunity for carriers to expand in the Medicare supplement market.
Over the next 10 years, Medicare Advantage is expected to continue its rapid growth. Medicare supplement’s coverage of the Medicare population is expected to remain flat.
The expansion in the Medicare beneficiary population will create an attractive growth opportunity for the next decade. While the proportion of total enrollees may be flat, Medicare supplement is projected to add over 3 million lives by 2032 at an annualized growth rate of 2%.